ERA5 / DFS annual diagnostics

Regional Heatwave Time-Series Diagnostics

Examine annual aggregation, reference-period anomalies, regional contrasts, and cross-metric structure before interpreting long-term change.

Event diagnostics DFS method

Loading annual regional series...

Source: ERA5 daily maximum 2 m temperature
Coverage: 1940-2025
Detection: Calendar-day P90, minimum 3 days
Reference: 1981-2010
Frequency: Detected events per region-year
Event metrics: Arithmetic mean across events in each region-year
Zero encoding: 0 denotes no detected event in that region-year
Archive release: 2026-01-29

Shared analytical scope

Define the time-series comparison

Preparing controls...

Primary region Comparison region Analysis from Analysis to Reference period Display Smoothing Zero policy Context layer Show annual event count

Frequency Detected-event frequency

Metric definition

Latest annual value - -

Reference mean - -

Recent mean - 2011-2025 annual values

Absolute shift - Recent mean minus reference mean

Relative shift - Recent versus reference

OLS slope - Per decade within analysis window

Annual time series

Detected-event frequency

Descriptive diagnostics

Series structure

No significance test

Series	N	Slope/decade	R²	SD	Lag-1 r

Peak year: -
Peak value: -
Latest percentile: -
Total events: -

OLS and lag-1 correlation describe the selected annual series. They do not account for autocorrelated errors, field significance, or attribution.

Reference-aware distribution

Annual values by analysis period

Period	Calendar years	Valid N	Events	Mean	SD	P10	P50	P90

For event-mean metrics, “event years only” excludes annual zeros that encode no detected event. Frequency always retains zero-event years.

IPCC WGI AR6 comparison

Regional annual-series diagnostics

Find region Sort by

Region	Type	Valid N	Events	Reference mean	Recent mean	Absolute shift	Relative shift	Slope/decade	R²	Latest

Select a regional row to make it the primary time series.

Cross-metric structure

Annual correlation matrix

Method

Pairwise coefficients use overlapping annual values in the selected window. They are not detrended and are not adjusted for serial dependence or multiple comparisons.

Reproducible annual evidence

Selected-region annual table

Year	Events	HWMS mean	HWD mean	HWMA mean	HWMM mean	sumofMd mean	Period

Interpretation guardrails

What an annual chart can and cannot establish

Annual means hide event distributions

Use Insights to inspect event-level quantiles, extremes, duration, area, and magnitude together.

Zero is a catalog state

For event-mean metrics, zero indicates no detected event in that region-year, not a measured zero magnitude.

Correlation is not mechanism

Shared trends and serial dependence can produce strong annual correlations without causal dependence.