ERA5T preliminary · current-year research watch

Near-real-time Heatwave Watch

Browse every CPU_DFS event detected in the available 2026 ERA5T record together with the Southern Hemisphere 2025–2026 season, distinguish ended events from candidates active at the latest observation, and compare provisional strength with the verified archive.

Historical Insights DFS method

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Source: ERA5T preliminary daily maximum 2 m temperature
Coverage: 2026 through latest observation
Detection: Calendar-day P90 · accepted CPU_DFS
Reference: 1981–2010 thresholds
Candidate status: Partial-year · right-censored
Observed latency: Resolving...

Latest validated shadow release

ERA5T preliminary event tracker

Events can revise, split, merge, or end when later observations arrive. Select an event or its intersected AR6 region to inspect the evidence chain.

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Data through: -
Observed latency: -
Active at latest observation: -
Since prior release: -

Progressive event index

Find every event, inspect one at a time

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Event index is the clean default: each numbered circle groups nearby event centres and filters the complete newest-first list when selected. Top 10 outlines shows the ten highest-HWMS events in the current filter; All outlines remains an optional research view. After choosing an event, orange shows its observed lifetime; green and red show the start and daily-HWMS peak. Smoothed outlines are visual aids over exact land-only CPU_DFS cells, not forecasts or impact maps.

Spatial grouping rule

Event index places each catalogue event's representative centre (tol_i, tol_j) into a fixed 30° longitude × 20° latitude cell. Events whose centres fall in the same cell are counted together. Circle radius uses square-root scaling; a low-saturation Morandi colour scale uses log-scaled counts from 1 to the current filtered maximum shown in the legend. Dusty blue means fewer events, muted brick red means more, and 1 means one event. This is display-only indexing; it does not merge CPU_DFS events and does not use footprint overlap, HWMS, or HWD. Top 10 outlines is ranked separately by descending HWMS within the current filter, with source event ID used only to break ties.

Strongest active candidates

Ranked by provisional HWMS

Choose an event to inspect

Shadow candidate · ERA5T preliminary · right-censored at the latest observation. This layer does not overwrite the verified historical catalog and is not an operational public alert product.

Interpretation guardrails

Read the watch as a revisable observation layer

Latest observation is not now

Activity refers only to the latest ERA5T day shown above, not the current clock time.

Candidate is not final

Current-year objects are right-censored and may change as later observations connect or separate cells.

Footprint is not impact

The map shows CPU_DFS-connected climate cells; health, infrastructure, and financial impacts require separate evidence.