ERA5 / DFS event diagnostics

Heatwave Event & Regional Diagnostics

Examine event distributions, annual frequency, seasonal timing, and IPCC WGI AR6 regional contrasts before moving to risk interpretation.

Spatial search DFS method

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Source
ERA5 daily maximum 2 m temperature
Coverage
1940-2025
Detection
Calendar-day P90
Reference
1981-2010
Event object
DFS-connected cells, minimum 3 days
Archive release
2026-01-29

Shared analytical scope

Define the comparison before reading the signal

Preparing filters...

HWMS Integrated event scale

Metric definition
Events in scope - -
AR6 regions - Regions represented by filtered events
HWMS P50 - Median within the analytical scope
HWMS P90 - Upper-tail descriptive threshold
Recent frequency shift - 2011-2025 versus reference
Recent HWMS shift - Median versus reference

Temporal diagnostic

Annual detected-event frequency

Reference-aware comparison

Reference period vs recent climate

Descriptive
Period N Events/year HWMS P50 HWMS P90

Differences are catalog summaries. No significance test or uncertainty interval is implied.

IPCC WGI AR6 regions

Regional distribution comparison

Region Type N P50 P90 P99 Maximum Latest

Seasonal diagnostic

Event onset by calendar month

Month is derived from the source start-day index using a non-leap display calendar.

Traceable event evidence

Multivariate event table

Rank Event AR6 region Period HWD HWMA HWMM HWMS Selected percentile Evidence

Interpretation guardrails

What these diagnostics do and do not establish

Detection is not attribution

The catalog identifies connected heatwave objects; causal attribution requires a separate analysis.

Event scale is not impact

HWMS, HWD, HWMA, and HWMM describe physical event structure, not health or financial loss.

Regional values need sample context

Read every percentile with N, period, region definition, and archive coverage.