Verified archive · historical diagnostics

Historical Heatwave Insights

Examine Historical Today, event distributions, annual frequency, seasonal timing, and IPCC WGI AR6 regional contrasts in the verified 1940–2025 archive.

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Source
ERA5 daily maximum 2 m temperature
Coverage
1940-2025
Detection
Calendar-day P90
Reference
1981-2010
Event object
DFS-connected cells, minimum 3 days
Archive release
2026-01-29

Separate preliminary stream

Near-real-time Heatwave Watch

ERA5T current-year candidates now have a dedicated workspace. Use Watch for the latest-observation footprint and revision lineage; use this page for verified historical comparisons.

Data through
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Observed latency
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Active at latest observation
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Strongest candidate
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Loading shadow status Open Watch

Historical today · Calendar day

A reproducible daily heatwave case brief

Highest HWMS overlap

Loading event...

Finding the strongest archived event active on this calendar day.

DFS event footprint Loading boundary...
AR6 region
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Detected window
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HWMS
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HWD
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Why was it strong?

Regional component percentiles

HWD · HWMA · HWMM

External evidence

News, official analysis, and research

Pending Unverified

Checking the curated evidence layer.

Comparable events

Same AREA, nearby season, similar event structure

HWD, HWMA, and HWMM similarity
EventPeriodHWDHWMAHWMMSimilarityInspect

Historical Today matches the same month and day within each event year. Physical strength remains separate from external reporting: an absent source does not imply an absent impact.

Shared analytical scope

Define the comparison before reading the signal

HWMS Integrated event scale

Metric definition
Events in scope - -
AR6 regions - Regions represented by filtered events
HWMS P50 - Median within the analytical scope
HWMS P90 - Upper-tail descriptive threshold
Recent frequency shift - 2011-2025 versus reference
Recent HWMS shift - Median versus reference

Temporal diagnostic

Annual detected-event frequency

Reference-aware comparison

Reference period vs recent climate

Descriptive
Period N Events/year HWMS P50 HWMS P90

Differences are catalog summaries. No significance test or uncertainty interval is implied.

IPCC WGI AR6 regions

Regional distribution comparison

Region Type N P50 P90 P99 Maximum Latest

Seasonal diagnostic

Event onset by calendar month

Month is derived from the source start-day index using a non-leap display calendar.

Traceable event evidence

Multivariate event table

Rank Event AR6 region Period HWD HWMA HWMM HWMS Selected percentile Evidence

Interpretation guardrails

What these diagnostics do and do not establish

Detection is not attribution

The catalog identifies connected heatwave objects; causal attribution requires a separate analysis.

Event scale is not impact

HWMS, HWD, HWMA, and HWMM describe physical event structure, not health or financial loss.

Regional values need sample context

Read every percentile with N, period, region definition, and archive coverage.