Historical physical-risk diagnostics

Heatwave Hazard and Portfolio Translation

Rank DFS heatwave events with HPRI-G, inspect the physical signature behind each score, and translate hazard into an explicit portfolio screening model without confusing percentile rank with probability or financial loss.

HPRI method Event diagnostics

Loading the HPRI-G event catalog...

Source: ERA5 daily maximum 2 m temperature
Event method: DFS space-time connected objects
Coverage: 1940-2025
Current mode: HPRI-G / global full-event catalog
Score: 100 × PercentileRank(HWMS)
Diagnostics: P(HWMM), P(HWMA), P(HWD)
Risk layer: Acute physical hazard screening
Archive release: 2026-01-29

Shared analytical scope

Define the historical hazard screen

Preparing controls...

AR6 region Analysis from Analysis to Minimum HPRI-G Event structure Event lookup Evidence rows

HPRI-GHistorical percentile hazard rank

Each full-event HWMS is ranked against the complete global DFS event catalog. Filtering changes the analytical view, not the score reference distribution.

Reference-domain detail

Filtered events--

Median HPRI-G-Within the filtered event set

Severe tail-HPRI-G ≥ 90

Extreme tail-HPRI-G ≥ 95

Compound events-Two or three P90 traits

Highest selected rank--

Hazard-rank distribution

Filtered occupancy across HPRI-G intervals

Near-uniform occupancy in the unfiltered global catalog is expected because HPRI-G is an empirical percentile rank. Departures after regional, temporal, or structural filtering show where a subset concentrates in the global tail; they do not estimate annual probability or return period.

Selected event

No event selected

HPRI-G-/ 100

Select an event row to inspect its physical signature.

Event figure

AR6 regional diagnostics

Global-rank tail structure by region

Find region Sort by

Region	Type	N	HPRI median	P90	P99	Maximum	Severe ≥90	Extreme ≥95	Compound	2011-2025

These are global HPRI-G ranks grouped by event AREA. They are useful for catalog screening, but they are not a substitute for HPRI-R or asset-local HPRI-L.

Reproducible event evidence

Highest-ranked events in the selected scope

Rank	Event	Region	Year / DOY	HPRI-G	Band	HWMS	P(HWMM)	P(HWMA)	P(HWD)	Event structure

Select a row to update the event-signature panel. Original DFS metrics remain unchanged in every export.

Transparent risk translation

Portfolio screening workspace

Fictional template · screening only

1Hazard

HPRI with an explicit domain and baseline

2Exposure

Asset or holding weight in the portfolio

3Sensitivity

Vulnerability and adaptive-capacity assumptions

4Contribution

Traceable score contribution, not expected loss

100 × Σ w_j × (HPRI_j / 100) × V_j × (1 − AC_j)

Use asset-local HPRI-L for decision-grade applications. Applying the selected HPRI-G to assets is provided only as a preliminary sensitivity screen.

Asset	Sector	Weight %	Hazard basis	HPRI	Vulnerability	Adaptive capacity	Asset score	Contribution	Remove

Covered weight-Sum of entered portfolio weights

Screening score-Contribution on a full-portfolio basis

Exposure-weighted HPRI-Normalized over valid covered weight

Top contribution--

Sector calibration register

Required evidence by sector

Sector template

Model boundary

Inputs are assumptions, not inferred facts

HPRI: Observed or externally supplied acute hazard rank
Vulnerability: Sector/asset calibration supplied by the analyst
Adaptive capacity: Documented resilience assumption supplied by the analyst
Output: Screening score contribution; not currency loss or loss probability

Product readiness

Available calculations and data gaps

Product	Status	Current basis	Required next

HPRI v2.1 framework

Dual-baseline future mode

Method detail

DetectScenario-period P90

Preserve separable future DFS event objects.

MeasureHistorical and scenario magnitude

Compute HWMS^abs and HWMS^rel on the same event.

ReportHPRI_hist and HPRI_scen

Keep historical impact and future rarity separate.

AcuteHPRI_hist, HPRI_scen, HER95, HERmax

ChronicCHBI and days above historical P90

No SSP event catalog is loaded on this page. These outputs remain a documented calculation framework, not current scenario results.

Historical calibration register

Financial-loss evidence still to be sourced

Schema readiness is not evidence availability

Historical case	Tracker record	Required calibration fields	Current status

Data and provenance

Reproducible outputs

Original DFS fields are retained beside derived HPRI fields

HPRI method metadataReference modes, bands, sector requirements, and cautions Portfolio CSV templateStatic input schema with fictional example rows Asset GeoJSON templatePoint-overlay schema for future HPRI-L production

Event source: Heatwave/data/list_data.json
Reference domain: -
Baseline: -
Metric basis: -

Interpretation guardrails

What this risk workspace can and cannot establish

HPRI is not a probability

HPRI 100 marks the top of the current empirical catalog; it does not establish a return period or 100% event probability.

Global rank is not local asset risk

Raw HWMS and HPRI-G can reflect event footprint. Cross-market decisions require HPRI-R or preferably HPRI-L.

Screening score is not expected loss

Financial interpretation requires calibrated vulnerability, adaptive capacity, exposure, and loss functions.